Quantifying Changes in Extreme Weather Events in Response to Warmer Global Temperature     

Travis R. Moore  H. Damon Matthews  Christopher Simmons  Martin Leduc 《大气与海洋》2015,53(4):412-425

Global warming is expected to affect both the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, though projections of the response of these events to climate warming remain highly uncertain. The range of changes reported in the climate modelling literature is very large, sometimes leading to contradictory results for a given extreme weather event. Much of this uncertainty stems from the incomplete understanding of the physics of extreme weather processes, the lack of representation of mesoscale processes in coarse-resolution climate models, and the effect of natural climate variability at multi-decadal time scales. However, some of the spread in results originates simply from the variety of scenarios for future climate change used to drive climate model simulations, which hampers the ability to make generalizations about predicted changes in extreme weather events. In this study, we present a meta-analysis of the literature on projected future extreme weather events in order to quantify expected changes in weather extremes as a function of a common metric of global mean temperature increases. We find that many extreme weather events are likely to be significantly affected by global warming. In particular, our analysis indicates that the overall frequency of global tropical cyclones could decrease with global warming but that the intensity of these storms, as well as the frequency of the most intense cyclones could increase, particularly in the northwestern Pacific basin. We also found increases in the intensity of South Asian monsoonal rainfall, the frequency of global heavy precipitation events, the number of North American severe thunderstorm days, North American drought conditions, and European heatwaves, with rising global mean temperatures. In addition, the periodicity of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation may decrease, which could, in itself, influence extreme weather frequency in many areas of the climate system.  相似文献   

Performance of DNAPL Source Depletion Technologies at 59 Chlorinated Solvent-Impacted Sites   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

Travis M. McGuire  James M. McDade  Charles J. Newell 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2006,26(1):73-84

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Aeolian dune sediment flux variability over an annual cycle of wind          下载免费PDF全文

Travis Swanson  David Mohrig  Gary Kocurek 《Sedimentology》2016,63(6):1753-1764

Aeolian dune motion is thought to be driven by an annual cycle of sediment‐transporting wind events. Each wind event drives uneven motion of dune crestlines, yet dune crestlines align as a trend to an annual cycle of wind. Understanding the variability in dune motion over such a cycle aids the interpretation of aeolian cross‐stratification, often available only in the limiting exposure of core and outcrop. Digital elevation models obtained by light detection and ranging are used to estimate dune brink motion and sediment flux along the sinuous crestlines of crescentic dunes at White Sands gypsum dune field (south‐central New Mexico, USA) over an annual cycle of wind. In tandem, meteorological observations over the same annual cycle are used to drive a kinematic model of dune crestline motion. Wind‐driven kinematic modelling does well to predict the mean and overall variation in sediment flux with compass direction. Digital elevation model‐based estimations of brink motion and sediment flux reveal that dune motion and sediment flux very nearly follow a circular normal distribution. Dunes at White Sands were found to achieve steady mean values of lee surface dip direction, brink motion and sediment flux within a sample window the size of approximately six dunes of average crestline length. Due to the symmetrical distribution of dune motion about the average lee surface dip direction, uneven motion of dune crestlines averages to become motion of dune crestlines normal to a trend, as predicted by wind‐driven kinematic models.  相似文献   

Flood recovery and property acquisition in Cedar Rapids,Iowa     

Eric Tate  Aaron Strong  Travis Kraus  Haoyi Xiong 《Natural Hazards》2016,80(3):2055-2079

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Factors Influencing the Development of Rangeland Fire Protection Associations: Exploring Fire Mitigation Programs for Rural,Resource-Based Communities     

Amanda M. Stasiewicz  Travis B. Paveglio 《社会与自然资源》2017,30(5):627-641

Increases in wildfire frequency and extent in rangelands pose a growing threat to private property and ecosystem health. The state of Idaho, USA, recently promoted rangeland fire protection associations (RFPAs)—nonprofit organizations of local citizens who contribute to firefighting efforts on public rangelands—as one way to mitigate rangeland wildfire risk. This study used in-depth interviews with RFPA members and land management professionals to explore the local circumstances that influenced the establishment and functioning of one RFPA. Results indicate that intergenerational ties to “working the land,” existing reciprocity among neighbors, a culture of self-reliance, and informal social networks all contributed to RFPA formation and functioning. Interaction between RFPA members and professionals improved their relationships and promoted shared understandings about wildfire response. We conclude by discussing conditions that might enable or inhibit RFPAs in other areas and how our findings advance research on adapting mitigation programs to local context.  相似文献   

Absorption and scattering of light by small particles: By Craig F. Bohren and Donald R. Huffman,Wiley, New York, 1983. 530 pp., $49.95.     

Larry D. Travis 《Icarus》1984,60(3):721-722

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Red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle) reproduction and seedling colonization after hurricane charley: Comparisons of Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay     

C. Edward Proffitt  Eric C. Milbrandt  Steven E. Travis 《Estuaries and Coasts》2006,29(6):972-978

Reproductive aspects of life history are known to be important in recovery following disturbance in many plant species although this has not been well studied in mangroves. Hurricane Charley devastated large areas of mangroves in Charlotte Harbor, Florida, in August 2004. We surveyed 6 forests in Charlotte Harbor (2002, 2003, and 2005) and 16 in Tampa Bay, Florida (2001, 2002, 2003, and 2005) for total numbers of reproducing trees and trees heterozygotic for albinism that produce both normal and albino propagules. Tree size (estimated height and diameter at breast height) was also recorded for sentinel heterozygotic trees. Total number of reproducing trees km⁻¹ was used as an index of reproductive output of the population, and deviation from the 3∶1 (normal:albino propagules) ratio on heterozygotic trees expected with 100% selfing was used to estimate outcrossing. Numbers ofRhizophora mangle reproducing trees km⁻¹ of shoreline in Charlotte Harbor were reduced by an order of magnitude following Hurricane Charley, while numbers of reproducing trees in Tampa Bay were similar to those of previous years. Reduced reproduction in Charlotte Harbor was accompanied by fewer new recruits in plots on Sanibel and Captiva Islands. Numbers of new recruits after the storm also tended to be fewer in plots where canopy loss was greater. More new recruits occurred in sites that had higher densities of pre-stormRhizophora seedlings and greater relative dominance byRhizophora. Outcrossing of sentinel trees was 2.5 times greater, in Charlotte Harbor (mean site⁻¹=33.6±6.7%; with 17% of forest sites completely selfing) than in Tampa Bay (mean site⁻¹=13.4±4.7%; with 40% of sites completely selfing), although the implications for seedling recruitment of this difference are not known.  相似文献   

2-D seismic trenching of colluvial wedges and faults     

David Sheley  Travis Crosby  Min Zhou  Jamie Giacoma  Jianhua Yu  Ruiqing He  Gerard T. Schuster   《Tectonophysics》2003,368(1-4):51

Images of the depth and shape of colluvial wedges by 3-D travel time tomography can be valuable in estimating the past history of ancient earthquakes and assessing the earthquake hazard of a fault. Unfortunately, 3-D seismic surveys can be both costly and time consuming. In this paper, we report our first successful results of detecting the shapes and depths of colluvial wedges with 2-D travel time tomography. The locations of the colluvial wedges are along the Oquirrh fault and the Salt Lake City segment of the Wasatch fault. We also report that the tomogram from one of our 2-D surveys suggests the possibility of detecting multiple colluvial wedges at depth. Using both reflection and tomographic images at another site clearly reveals the presence of a known shallow fault and the contact between native soil and recent fill. Our results suggest the synergistic use of both seismic tomography and reflection imaging, we denote as seismic trenching, as a means of detecting shallow colluvial wedges and faults. Seismic trenching has the potential to significantly expand the lateral extent and depth of investigation of paleoseismology.  相似文献   

Debiased Orbital and Absolute Magnitude Distribution of the Near-Earth Objects     

William F. Bottke Jr.Alessandro Morbidelli  Robert JedickeJean-Marc Petit  Harold F. LevisonPatrick Michel  Travis S. Metcalfe 《Icarus》2002,156(2):399-433

The orbital and absolute magnitude distribution of the near-Earth objects (NEOs) is difficult to compute, partly because only a modest fraction of the entire NEO population has been discovered so far, but also because the known NEOs are biased by complicated observational selection effects. To circumvent these problems, we created a model NEO population which was fit to known NEOs discovered or accidentally rediscovered by Spacewatch. Our method was to numerically integrate thousands of test particles from five source regions that we believe provide most NEOs to the inner Solar System. Four of these source regions are in or adjacent to the main asteroid belt, while the fifth one is associated with the transneptunian disk. The nearly isotropic comets, which include the Halley-type comets and the long-period comets, were not included in our model. Test bodies from our source regions that passed into the NEO region (perihelia q<1.3 AU and aphelia Q≥0.983 AU) were tracked until they were eliminated by striking the Sun or a planet or were ejected out of the inner Solar System. These integrations were used to create five residence time probability distributions in semimajor axis, eccentricity, and inclination space (one for each source). These distributions show where NEOs from a given source are statistically most likely to be located. Combining these five residence time probability distributions with an NEO absolute magnitude distribution computed from previous work and a probability function representing the observational biases associated with the Spacewatch NEO survey, we produced an NEO model population that could be fit to 138 NEOs discovered or accidentally rediscovered by Spacewatch. By testing a range of possible source combinations, a best-fit NEO model was computed which (i) provided the debiased orbital and absolute magnitude distributions for the NEO population and (ii) indicated the relative importance of each NEO source region.Our best-fit model is consistent with 960±120 NEOs having H<18 and a<7.4 AU. Approximately 44% (as of December 2000) have been found so far. The limits on this estimate are conditional, since our model does not include nearly isotropic comets. Nearly isotropic comets are generally restricted to a Tisserand parameter (with respect to Jupiter) of T<2, such that few are believed to have a<7.4 AU. Our computed NEO orbital distribution, which is valid for bodies as faint as H<22, indicates that the Amor, Apollo, and Aten populations contain 32±1%, 62±1%, and 6±1% of the NEO population, respectively. We estimate that the population of objects completely inside Earth's orbit (IEOs) arising from our source regions is 2% the size of the NEO population. This value does not include the putative Vulcanoid population located inside Mercury's orbit. Overall, our model predicts that ∼61% of the NEO population comes from the inner main belt (a<2.5 AU), ∼24% comes from the central main belt (2.5<a<2.8 AU), ∼8% comes from the outer main belt (a>2.8 AU), and ∼6% comes from the Jupiter-family comet region (2<T?3). The steady-state population in each NEO source region, as well as the influx rates needed to replenish each region, were calculated as a by-product of our method. The population of extinct comets in the Jupiter-family comet region was also computed.  相似文献   

H<Subscript>2</Subscript>O storage capacity of olivine and low-Ca pyroxene from 10 to 13 GPa: consequences for dehydration melting above the transition zone   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Travis?J.?TennerEmail author  Marc?M.?Hirschmann  Anthony?C.?Withers  Paola?Ardia 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2012,163(2):297-316

The onset of hydrous partial melting in the mantle above the transition zone is dictated by the H₂O storage capacity of peridotite, which is defined as the maximum concentration that the solid assemblage can store at P and T without stabilizing a hydrous fluid or melt. H₂O storage capacities of minerals in simple systems do not adequately constrain the peridotite water storage capacity because simpler systems do not account for enhanced hydrous melt stability and reduced H₂O activity facilitated by the additional components of multiply saturated peridotite. In this study, we determine peridotite-saturated olivine and pyroxene water storage capacities at 10–13 GPa and 1,350–1,450°C by employing layered experiments, in which the bottom ~2/3 of the capsule consists of hydrated KLB-1 oxide analog peridotite and the top ~1/3 of the capsule is a nearly monomineralic layer of hydrated Mg# 89.6 olivine. This method facilitates the growth of ~200-μm olivine crystals, as well as accessory low-Ca pyroxenes up to ~50 μm in diameter. The presence of small amounts of hydrous melt ensures that crystalline phases have maximal H₂O contents possible, while in equilibrium with the full peridotite assemblage (melt + ol + pyx + gt). At 12 GPa, olivine and pyroxene water storage capacities decrease from ~1,000 to 650 ppm, and ~1,400 to 1,100 ppm, respectively, as temperature increases from 1,350 to 1,450°C. Combining our results with those from a companion study at 5–8 GPa (Ardia et al., in prep.) at 1,450°C, the olivine water storage capacity increases linearly with increasing pressure and is defined by the relation C_{\textH2 \textO}^\textolivine ( \textppm ) = 57.6( ±16 ) ×P( \textGPa ) - 169( ±18 ). C_{{{\text{H}}_{2} {\text{O}}}}^{\text{olivine}} \left( {\text{ppm}} \right) = 57.6\left( { \pm 16} \right) \times P\left( {\text{GPa}} \right) - 169\left( { \pm 18} \right). Adjustment of this trend for small increases in temperature along the mantle geotherm, combined with experimental determinations of D_{\textH2 \textO}^{\textpyx/olivine} D_{{{\text{H}}_{2} {\text{O}}}}^{\text{pyx/olivine}} from this study and estimates of D_{\textH2 \textO}^{\textgt/\textolivine} D_{{{\text{H}}_{2} {\text{O}}}}^{{{\text{gt}}/{\text{olivine}}}} , allows for estimation of peridotite H₂O storage capacity, which is 440 ± 200 ppm at 400 km. This suggests that MORB source upper mantle, which contains 50–200 ppm bulk H₂O, is not wet enough to incite a global melt layer above the 410-km discontinuity. However, OIB source mantle and residues of subducted slabs, which contain 300–1,000 ppm bulk H₂O, can exceed the peridotite H₂O storage capacity and incite localized hydrous partial melting in the deep upper mantle. Experimentally determined values of D_{\textH2 \textO}^{\textpyx/\textolivine} D_{{{\text{H}}_{2} {\text{O}}}}^{{{\text{pyx}}/{\text{olivine}}}} at 10–13 GPa have a narrow range of 1.35 ± 0.13, meaning that olivine is probably the most important host of H₂O in the deep upper mantle. The increase in hydration of olivine with depth in the upper mantle may have significant influence on viscosity and other transport properties.  相似文献